The U.S. and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire just hours before President Trump’s deadline. The ceasefire by April 15 market is now at 100% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.
## Market reaction
The April 15 ceasefire market hit 100% YES from 12% the day prior. The April 30 market also reached 100% YES, up from 26% in the same timeframe. Longer-term horizons like May 31 and June 30 show near-certainty of ceasefire continuation, with traders pricing in sustained compliance.
The regime fall by June 30 market dropped to 8.5% YES, down from 12% yesterday. The ceasefire signals Iran’s willingness to negotiate, which has cooled speculation around regime collapse. Traders appear to be pricing in the leadership’s ability to maintain control through this diplomatic period.
## Why it matters
Trading volume hit $1.39M in actual USDC on the April 15 market alone. A 24-point spike occurred at 10:34 PM, moving odds from 67% to 90% in moments. The order book on the regime fall market is thin: $10K can swing odds by 5 points, making it vulnerable to large orders.
The ceasefire agreement was reported by a Tier 3 source. Markets reflect near-total confidence in the short-term hold, but the sourcing quality leaves room for a correction if details don’t hold up.
## What to watch
At 8.5% YES, betting on regime collapse by June 30 pays $1 for every 8.5¢, an 11.8x return if it resolves YES.
The Islamabad talks scheduled for April 10 are the next catalyst. Confirmation of U.S. participation could lock in these odds or trigger a repricing. Watch for operational language shifts from CENTCOM or unexpected moves by Iran’s proxies.
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Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
