US and allies intensify military actions against Iran

By Estefano Gomez · Published April 2, 2026 · 2 min read · Source: Crypto Briefing

by Estefano Gomez · Just now ago

Operation Epic Fury’s escalation cuts ceasefire odds. Ceasefire by April 7 is at 8.5% YES, down from 10% yesterday.

The conflict’s intensification hits prediction markets. The April 7 ceasefire market is at 8.5% YES, showing traders’ doubts about a resolution soon. The April 15 market is slightly more hopeful at 18.5% YES, down from 20%. April 30 stands at 38.5% YES, indicating some expectation of de-escalation or diplomacy.

Trader activity is high, with $1,365,780 USDC traded in ceasefire markets in 24 hours. The largest price move was a 4-point rise in the April 30 market. The April 7 market needs $15,138 to shift 5 points, showing its sensitivity to large trades.

The military campaign heightens the risk of US ground forces entering Iran. The April 30 market for US forces entry is at 52.5% YES, reflecting increased likelihood due to the conflict. The chance of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 is 10.5% YES, down from 12%, as traders assess regime stability.

The geopolitical situation remains volatile. Ceasefire odds are low without diplomatic progress. At 8.5¢, a YES share on an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 if it resolves, offering an 11.8x return. Confidence in a sudden diplomatic breakthrough is needed for this bet.

Watch for Trump’s statements, CENTCOM briefings, or moves by Oman and Qatar. These could shift market dynamics.

Markets Impacted

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES
US forces enter Iran by March 31? — currently 0.1% YES
US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 52.5% YES
US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 64.5% YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — currently 10.5% YES

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.

Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Related to This Story ▼ Trump pushes war with Iran, drops ceasefire odds

This article was originally published on Crypto Briefing and is republished here under RSS syndication for informational purposes. All rights and intellectual property remain with the original author. If you are the author and wish to have this article removed, please contact us at [email protected].