The US has accused Chinese firms of using proxy accounts and jailbreaking to steal AI capabilities. The market for Alibaba having the best AI model by April 2026 sits at 0% YES.
The April 30 market for Alibaba is effectively dead at 0% YES. The accusation of “industrial-scale AI theft” calls into question the legitimacy of Chinese AI advancements, and traders appear to have priced that in. No volume has been recorded in the past 24 hours.
For the Trump China Visit market, the April 30 sub-market sits at 0.1% YES, with US-China tensions over AI theft likely complicating any near-term diplomatic meeting. The May 31 contract is at 77% YES. The wide gap between the April and May contracts suggests traders expect a catalyst in the next month, possibly tied to the upcoming Trump-Xi summit.
The Trump visit market trades $161,883/day in face value, with actual USDC traded at $54,211. It takes $4,967 to move the April 30 market 5 points, meaning even moderate-sized orders can shift the price. The largest recent move was a 3-point spike at 12:03 AM, likely driven by speculative positioning around these geopolitical tensions.
The theft accusations are a real escalation in the US-China tech conflict. Buying YES on Alibaba at 0¢ offers no payout unless something dramatic happens, like a major independently verified breakthrough. The Trump visit market is more active and more tradeable, but expect volatility around summit developments.
Watch for statements from either government in the lead-up to the Trump-Xi summit. Confirmation of meeting details or a shift in rhetoric could move these markets quickly.
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Will Trump Visit China| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 78% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 83.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 0.7% | — | — | Trade → |
