The US has accused China of “industrial-scale” AI theft and announced plans to crack down on its exploitation. The Trump visit to China by May 31 market now sits at 75.5% YES, down from 78% a day ago.
The market for Trump visiting China by April 30 is effectively dead at 0.5% YES, with only 7 days left. The June 30 market holds at 82.5% YES, meaning traders still expect a visit but increasingly doubt it happens before June. The May 31 market dropped 3 points after the accusation, pointing to growing skepticism about a near-term diplomatic thaw.
The accusation lands on top of existing US export controls on AI tech to China. Further strain on diplomatic ties makes a Trump visit less likely in the short term. Trading volume was $50,801 across markets, with $43,659 concentrated on May 31. The order book shows it takes $7,927 to move the May 31 market 5 points — some depth, but vulnerable to large trades.
The US statement opens a potential new front in the tech rivalry and tracks with legislative efforts to penalize AI theft. At 24¢, a YES share for May 31 pays $1 if Trump visits, a 4.16x return. For that bet to work, you’d need to believe tensions ease rapidly enough for last-minute diplomacy.
Watch for official statements from the White House or Chinese Foreign Ministry that change the diplomatic calculus. A confirmed summit date could move odds sharply.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 75.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 83.5% | — | — | Trade → |