Ukraine’s drone campaign has slashed Russian oil export capacity during a critical price spike. Crude oil hitting $90 by June 30 is priced at 67% YES.
Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, coinciding with the Strait of Hormuz closure, have disrupted global supply chains. The Crude Oil Predictions for June market reflects this, with high odds that crude will reach $90 as supply constraints persist. The Crude Oil All Time High by April 30 market sits at just 1% YES, meaning traders don’t expect prices to reach new records imminently.
The June market’s 67% YES suggests traders expect sustained pressure on oil prices from ongoing disruptions and geopolitical tensions. There’s a 67-day window until resolution. The April 30 market’s low odds confirm traders don’t expect an all-time high within the next week, even with recent volatility.
Volume at $2,513 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours, and $695 is enough to move the April 30 market 5 points, so this market is thin. The largest recent move was a 1-point spike, showing limited conviction in a near-term surge.
Ukraine’s strikes represent sustained geopolitical risk, but the flat all-time high odds suggest traders treat this as a longer-term story. At 1.4¢, a YES share for an all-time high pays $1 if it resolves, a large payout but unlikely under current conditions. For this bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in an unexpected supply shock or escalation beyond what’s already priced in.
Watch for statements from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Alexander Novak, and other geopolitical actors. Unexpected policy shifts could move these markets quickly.
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Will Russia Enter Rai Oleksandrivka February 28| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 98.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 99.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.4% | — | — | Trade → |