The UK plans to send mine-sweeping vessels as part of a multinational de-mining effort in the Strait of Hormuz. The market for 80 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 sits at 6% YES, down from 17% yesterday. The market for UK warships transiting the Strait is at 3% YES, suggesting traders doubt immediate military transit even with mine-sweeper deployment announced.
The April 30 ship transit market has lost confidence, with the largest move today being a 2-point spike. Market depth sits at $946 to move 5 points, making it vulnerable to sudden shifts, though daily USDC volume is only $2,238.
The deployment signals stabilization rather than escalation, which separates it from prior military posturing in the region. Mine-clearing operations, if successful before the April 30 deadline, would directly affect whether 80 ships can transit on any single day. At 6¢ per YES share, a positive resolution pays 16.67x.
Watch for statements from the UK Ministry of Defence or CENTCOM on de-mining progress and completion timelines. Confirmation of cleared shipping lanes could move these thin markets quickly.
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Will Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz On Any Day End Of April| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.6% | — | — | Trade → |
