The UK has voiced opposition to the US blockade of Iranian ports, and the market for Trump announcing the blockade will be lifted by May 31 has dropped to 58.5% YES, down from 72% yesterday.
The UK’s stance is also visible in the market for UK warships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which sits at just 1.1% YES, pricing in almost no chance of UK naval involvement. The blockade-lifted odds fell sharply, with a 5-point spike at 3:50 PM yesterday suggesting some traders tried to catch a falling knife.
The “blockade lifted” market saw $95,253 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours, with $8,975 needed to move the price 5 points — a moderately liquid book. UK opposition has injected new uncertainty into what traders had been pricing as a more likely resolution.
The practical implication: the blockade may last longer, pushing back timelines for normalization in the Strait of Hormuz. Traders bearish on a quick resolution now have a concrete reason to hold their positions. A YES share for Trump’s announcement at 58.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 1.71x return. But that requires believing the US finds a workaround for UK non-cooperation in 37 days.
Watch for NATO’s response and any statements from CENTCOM. If UK opposition spreads into broader NATO reluctance, expect further downward pressure on blockade resolution odds.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 58.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
