UAE pledges stable oil supply amid Iran Strait of Hormuz blockade

UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei has assured there will be no sudden increase in oil supply from the UAE. Crude oil all-time high by April 30 sits at 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.

Market reaction

The market’s response to al-Mazrouei’s statement points to a decreased likelihood of oil prices surpassing $120/barrel by April 30. The pledge for stability comes during Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for global crude shipments. The UAE has the capacity to ramp up production but chose to maintain current levels, signaling an expectation for balanced supply and demand. Explore more on this market.

Why it matters

Markets predicting crude oil prices reaching $90 by the end of June are slightly dampened by this commitment. But ongoing geopolitical tensions keep traders watchful. The prospect of Iran-US-Israel conflict escalation remains a significant factor that could still drive prices up regardless of the UAE’s position.

The combined 24-hour USDC volume for the April 30 market is $2,513, with a thin order book: it takes only $695 to move the price five points. So while the face value of trades looks meaningful, the market is vulnerable to swings from individual large orders.

What to watch

For traders, this is a cautionary signal. Al-Mazrouei’s statement provides short-term bearish sentiment for a price spike, but the geopolitical backdrop introduces volatility. A YES share at 1¢ pays $1 if prices surge past the all-time high, offering a potential 100x return. Belief in a drastic escalation would justify such a high-risk bet.

Watch for developments in the Strait of Hormuz closure status or new diplomatic engagements, as these could shift the current trajectory. OPEC+ meetings and any production changes from major oil producers will also matter in the coming days.

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