Trump’s social media posts mixing profanity and Islamic prayer have rattled US-Iran negotiations, pushing the odds for a permanent peace deal by April 22 down to 19.5% YES from 40% just a day ago.
The sharpest decline was in the April 22 market, which dropped 5 points at 5:56 PM. The April 30 market also fell 5 points to 37.5% YES. The May 31 and June 30 markets hold at 58.5% and 67.5% YES, suggesting traders still expect a deal is more likely than not on a longer timeline.
The April 22 market alone has $610,678 in daily volume. But it only takes $9,404 to move this market 5 percentage points, which means individual large trades can cause outsized price swings. The gap between near-term and longer-dated contracts is widening: traders are pricing in a real chance that talks stall in the short term without collapsing entirely.
Trump’s rhetoric may be more than noise. The quick drop in April odds suggests traders are hedging against a breakdown in talks while keeping longer-dated positions open. Buying YES at 20¢ pays $1 if a deal is reached by April 22, a 5x return. That bet requires believing rapid progress is possible despite the current tone.
Watch for official statements from CENTCOM or shifts in diplomatic tone from Iran. Trump’s next posts could move these markets again, but any intermediary involvement from Pakistan, Turkey, or Egypt would be a stronger signal of real movement.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 18.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 57.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 66.5% | — | — | Trade → |
