Trump posted optimistic comments about the Iran conflict on social media, and the US-Iran peace deal by April 22 market now sits at 29.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago.
Market reaction
The April 22 contract moved modestly, but later dates saw sharper moves. April 30 is at 42.5% YES, nearly doubling from 17% a week ago. The biggest shift is in the May 31 market, now at 62.5% YES, a 24-point surge over seven days. The June 30 market sits at 71% YES.
Why it matters
The term structure tells a specific story: there’s a 21-point gap between the April 30 and May 31 contracts, meaning traders are pricing in a likely catalyst during that window. $698,114 in USDC traded across peace deal markets today. The order book shows real liquidity, with $16,317 needed to move the April 22 market by 5 points.
What to watch
Trump’s optimistic framing could be noise without concrete steps, but it coincides with other de-escalation signals like the Strait of Hormuz reopening. At 14.5¢, a YES share for April 22 pays $1 if resolved, a 6.9x return. That bet requires believing a diplomatic breakthrough happens within six days.
Watch for Trump’s next social media statements and any official announcements from Washington or Tehran. A confirmed negotiating venue or named mediator would be the strongest signal that these odds are still underpriced.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 29.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 42.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 62.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 71% | — | — | Trade → |
