Trump’s statement on managing Iran’s uranium as part of the ceasefire deal has pushed odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 to 99.6% YES, up from 14% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
Sub-markets for April 30 and June 30 sit at 99.5% and 99.6% YES respectively. The term structure is flat, meaning traders expect the ceasefire to hold across the coming months rather than pricing in any near-term collapse and later recovery.
Daily USDC volume across these markets is $4,541,408. It took $246,725 to move the April 15 market 5 points, which points to solid institutional participation. The largest move in the past 24 hours was a 24-point spike late in the evening, likely driven by order flow following Trump’s comments.
Why it matters
At 99.6% YES, the market is priced for near-certainty. A $1 bet on a ceasefire pays just over a cent. The upside is gone. But if talks falter, the downside risk could be sharp — the gap between 99.6% and any real uncertainty is wide enough to punish late buyers.
What to watch
Any formal announcements about the uranium deal’s specifics or intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar could either lock in the current pricing or crack it open. The difference between a framework agreement and a signed deal still matters at these levels.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | +0.4¢ | $8.1M | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | +0.5¢ | $4.1M | Trade → |
| May 31 | 100% | +0.4¢ | $2M | Trade → |
| June 30 | 100% | +0.4¢ | $1.4M | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | +0.4¢ | $768K | Trade → |
