A report by The New Yorker says Trump’s objectives in Iran are faltering. The odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 are at 6.5% YES, down from 20% just 24 hours ago.
The report points to stalled de-escalation efforts. With only 7 days to resolution, the April 30 market has collapsed. The May 31 market also dropped, now at 28.5% YES from 44% yesterday. The largest decrease was in the June 30 market, which fell to 43.5% YES.
The Iranian regime fall market moved slightly, with odds at 8.5% YES, up from 8% a day ago. This market is less volatile, with only a 1-point spike observed.
Actual USDC volume for the peace deal markets is $852,860 compared to $3,238,989 in face value. Moving the odds by 5 percentage points costs $30,914, which indicates moderate liquidity. The largest single move was a 5-point drop in the June 30 market at 5:45 PM.
The term structure from April to May shows a 22-point jump, meaning traders see a potential catalyst in May rather than the next seven days. The stalled objectives and what amounts to a “fog of peace” look like real setbacks, not noise. For contrarian traders, buying YES at 6¢ offers a 16.67x return if a deal materializes in the next week.
Watch for negotiation breakthroughs, new diplomatic channels, Trump’s next moves, Pakistan’s mediation efforts, or Congressional statements. Any of these could move these markets sharply.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 28.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 43.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 7% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
