Major General Randy Manner says Trump’s actions have sparked fears of a global arms race. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April sit at 17% YES, down from 26% just a day ago.
Market reaction
Traders are pricing in deep skepticism toward any diplomatic progress. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026 is effectively zeroed out at 0.1% YES. The April 30, 2026 contract trades at 14.5% YES, still well below coin-flip territory. Odds of a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 are at 3.2% YES, meaning traders expect military posturing to crowd out diplomacy.
Why it matters
Trade volume tells the story. The US-Iran permanent peace deal market has $433,823 in actual USDC traded, with real money betting against peace. The cost of moving the market 5 percentage points is just $416, which means even modest-sized trades can cause noticeable swings.
Trump’s hardline stance is pushing the US and Iran further from the negotiating table. At 17¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump concedes to Iranian demands, a 5.9x return. Betting on a radical shift in US policy within the next week is a long shot by any measure.
What to watch
CENTCOM and the Iranian Supreme National Security Council are the key actors here. Any operational changes or public announcements from either could move these markets fast.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 16.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 37.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 57.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3.2% | — | — | Trade → |
