Trump has withdrawn US envoys from Iran ceasefire talks, calling them a waste, and the US-Iran Permanent Peace Deal market by April 30 has dropped to 4% YES. The move follows Iran’s Foreign Minister leaving Islamabad without meeting US representatives.
Market reaction
The market for a peace deal by May 31 trades at 32% YES, down from 38% a day ago. The June 30 market sits at 48% YES, down from 57% over the previous 24 hours. Both drops accelerated as traders repriced the likelihood of any near-term agreement after Trump’s withdrawal.
Why it matters
The permanent peace deal market has $854,504 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours. Order book depth shows $27,666 is needed to move the April 30 odds by 5 points, which means relatively strong resistance against further price swings. The largest single-candle move was a 6-point spike earlier today. The April 21 ceasefire deadline is approaching with no scheduled talks, and Trump’s direct characterization of negotiations as a “waste” makes near-term resumption unlikely without a clear change in posture from one side.
What to watch
The key triggers are any re-engagement signals: Trump reversing his decision, Pakistan announcing new diplomatic efforts, or a shift in CENTCOM’s posture. A YES share for an April 30 peace deal, priced at 4¢, offers a potential 25x return. That’s a long shot, but not impossible if talks resume before the deadline.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 4.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 31.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 47.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 11.5% | — | — | Trade → |
