Trump is weighing the option of sending US special forces to seize Iran’s uranium stockpiles. The odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 have risen to 65.5% YES, up from 55% yesterday.
This potential shift from airstrikes to ground operations has traders anticipating a more aggressive US approach. The April 30 market surged 10.5 points in a day, indicating traders expect imminent action. The December 31 market stands at 74.5% YES, reflecting longer-term expectations. The March 31 market remains unchanged at 0.1%.
The April 30 odds spiked with volume at $2.3M in USDC trading daily, showing strong conviction. Shifting the price 5 points requires $185K, indicating significant market activity. A 6-point drop at 1:12 AM likely responded to broader news sentiment.
This suggests a real shift rather than speculative noise. Special forces operations would mark a major escalation, aligning with Trump’s goal to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. At 65.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if US troops enter Iran by April 30 — a 1.5x return. For profitability, one must believe Trump will authorize these operations within 28 days.
Watch for statements from Trump, Secretary of Defense Hegseth, and CENTCOM. Confirmation of special forces deployment could raise odds further. Alternatively, diplomatic moves or continued airstrikes could lower market expectations.
Markets Impacted
- US forces enter Iran by March 31? — currently 0.1% YES
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 65.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 74.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 65.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 74.5% | — | — | Trade → |
