President Trump warned that “lots of bombs” will start going off if the Iran ceasefire expires without a deal. The odds of the ceasefire ending by April 21 are at 13% YES, up from 6% yesterday.
Market reaction
The April 21 ceasefire end market saw the most action, spiking 5 points at 11:03 AM as traders priced in Trump’s escalation rhetoric. The April 30 ceasefire market dropped to 38% YES from 59% 24 hours ago, as Trump’s language suggests continued military operations.
Why it matters
The permanent peace deal by April 22 market is at 20% YES, down from 40% yesterday. Traders are skeptical about a breakthrough given stalled talks and Trump’s aggressive stance. His remarks signal increased tension, though they could also be a negotiating tactic. The chance of a ceasefire resolution or permanent peace deal by April 22 looks slim. Buying YES on a ceasefire end at 16¢ offers a 6.25x return if tensions escalate into renewed conflict.
What to watch
Vice President JD Vance’s negotiations in Islamabad are the immediate variable. Any hint of a compromise or new talks could shift odds fast. Expect updates from US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 13% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 18.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 37.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 60.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 70.5% | — | — | Trade → |
