Trump warned he may resume bombing if no Iran deal is reached by the ceasefire expiration on April 21. The ceasefire end market sits at 8% YES, down from 30% a week ago.
The market has $5,810 in daily USDC volume. It would only take $1,700 to move the price 5 percentage points, making it a thin market vulnerable to sudden repositioning.
The permanent peace deal market is at 14.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago. That market trades $267,520 in daily USDC volume, which means more resistance to quick swings.
Trump’s comments repeat the threat without adding new specifics. The ceasefire expiration is a well-known deadline, and the drop from 30% to 8% over the past week suggests traders increasingly expect the ceasefire to hold or be extended. The market appears to be waiting for concrete signals: a named mediator, a confirmed meeting, or a breakdown in back-channel talks.
A YES share in the ceasefire end market costs 8¢ and pays $1 if the ceasefire ends by April 21, a 12.5x return. The current pricing implies traders see this as unlikely without a new catalyst.
Watch for Trump’s statements over the next few days and any diplomatic moves from Iran or intermediaries like Oman. An unexpected announcement or a confirmed breakdown in talks could shift the odds quickly.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 32.5% | — | — | Trade → |
