Trump’s warning and the USS Bush’s arrival in the region have moved prediction markets. The probability of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 is now at 8.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday.
The market shift follows heightened military tensions. The Tehran explosion, though not confirmed as a US or Israeli action, adds pressure on Iran. The US-Iran ceasefire end market is closely watched, with Trump’s “clock is ticking” comment suggesting possible escalation. Specific sub-market odds were not available, but overall sentiment points toward increased risk of ceasefire breakdown.
The Iranian regime fall market trades $30,969 in actual USDC daily. It takes $26,254 to move the market 5 points, which indicates a stable order book. The largest recent move was a 1-point spike, suggesting cautious trader positioning despite the news.
For traders: at 8.5¢, a YES share offers a potential 11.8x return if the regime collapses by June 30. The bet depends on whether continued military pressure and internal instability actually produce regime change within that window.
Watch CENTCOM updates and Trump’s social media for further signals. Any move by Iran’s leadership or military could shift the odds.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 5.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 37.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 24.5% | — | — | Trade → |
