Trump claims JD Vance won’t attend Iran talks due to security concerns, but Mike Waltz says Vance is leading the delegation. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April are now at 27.5% YES, down from 62% 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
Trump’s public disagreement with his UN Ambassador, combined with military threats, has rattled the Iranian demands market. Odds dropped sharply as traders priced in lower chances of a diplomatic breakthrough. Daily volume is $11,103 face value and $6,018 actual USDC, with thin liquidity: just $816 could move the price 5 points.
The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market fell to 22.5% YES, down from 40% a day ago. The April 22 deadline is four days away. Order book depth to shift odds 5 points is $9,366.
Why it matters
The contradictory statements from Trump and Waltz about who is actually running the negotiation make it hard for either side to commit to terms. Iran’s negotiators are watching the same public disagreements traders are, and the confusion weakens any U.S. bargaining position heading into the April deadlines. Buying YES shares at 22.5¢ on the April 22 market pays $1 if resolved, a 5x return, but that requires a major diplomatic reversal within days.
What to watch
Track JD Vance’s actual movements and any new statements from Trump or Waltz. Official confirmation of Vance’s delegation role, or further military posturing, could move both markets sharply in either direction.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 27.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 22.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 42.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 61.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 70.5% | — | — | Trade → |
