Trump says US-Iran talks are “going very well.” The permanent peace deal by April 22 market is at 31.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago.
The statement follows Iran’s agreement to suspend its nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. April 30 odds climbed to 46.5% YES, doubling from 17% a week ago. The May 31 market is now at 63.5% YES.
Order books show depth, with $16,317 needed to move April 22 odds 5 points. May 31 shows similar depth at $13,322. Single large orders can still shift these markets; a 10-point drop on May 31 occurred at 5:10 PM.
The move depends on Iran’s compliance with nuclear suspension and US asset unfreezing. Trump’s statement pushes the narrative toward resolution but lacks concrete terms. A YES share for April 22, priced at 15¢, pays $1 if resolved, a 6.67x return. Traders clearly still see obstacles.
Watch for Trump’s upcoming Saturday news conference. It isn’t Iran-related, but any vague allusions could move odds. More important: specifics from US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff or Iranian Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi on actual deal terms.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 31.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 46.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 63.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 73% | — | — | Trade → |
