Trump’s national security team is considering an Iranian proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 30 is at 2% YES.
The review signals a possible move toward de-escalation, though US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has labeled Iran’s terms unacceptable. The April 30 market plummeted from 61% a week ago to 2% YES. The May 31 and June 30 contracts sit higher at 28.5% and 42% YES respectively, reflecting the possibility that negotiations drag out past the April deadline.
The largest single price move in the past 24 hours was a 6-point jump at 11:14 AM in the April 30 contract, showing traders reacting quickly to any signal of progress. Trade volume is $275,178 in actual USDC, enough for reasonable liquidity but still vulnerable to large single trades moving the price.
Skepticism dominates. Previous talks in Islamabad stalled, and neither the US nor Iran has shifted its position. At 2¢, a YES share offers a 50x return, but the obstacles are real. Traders betting on a breakthrough would need credible movement from both sides within a 6-day window.
Watch for announcements from the White House or official US-Iran joint statements. Any sign of resumed or successful negotiations could move these markets fast.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 1.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 28.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 41.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |