Trump posted a Truth Social rant targeting Democrats and media on April 21, and the market for Trump insulting someone on April 11, 2026 sits at 100% YES.
Market reaction
The post named Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer directly. All active sub-markets through April 15, 2026, are locked at 100% YES with zero spread across consecutive days. Traders betting NO on Trump insulting someone on any given day would lose money at these prices.
Why it matters
Trading volume is $0 in face value. The market is effectively dead because the outcome is treated as a certainty by every participant. A YES share at 100¢ offers no upside, and a NO share pays nothing unless Trump stops posting insults entirely. The flat term structure from April 11 through April 15 means traders see no day-to-day variation in the probability of an insult.
What to watch
The only thing that would move these markets is a sustained break from Trump’s posting habits, whether through a social media hiatus or a shift to purely policy-focused communication. Neither has happened during his time on Truth Social. At current prices, there is no contrarian trade available.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 11, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 12, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 13, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
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