Trump said he won’t attend meetings in Pakistan with unfamiliar figures, reducing the likelihood of near-term US-Iran diplomacy. The permanent peace deal by April 30 market sits at 2.8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
Market reaction
The April 30 peace deal odds collapsed to 2.8% YES from 61% a week ago. The May 31 market trades at 24.5%, down from 38% yesterday. Odds for Trump meeting Iranian officials by April 30 have fallen to 1.4% YES, with almost no movement, indicating traders see virtually zero chance of near-term diplomatic contact.
Why it matters
Trump’s refusal to engage through Pakistan signals a specific reluctance to use Islamabad as a diplomatic channel for Iran talks. This could sideline Pakistan’s mediation role entirely. With $275,178 in daily USDC volume, the April 30 peace market has real liquidity, but a $27,666 order could still move it 5 points. The market is active but thin enough that single large trades can cause sharp swings.
What to watch
Look for announcements from alternative mediators like Oman or Qatar. Any confirmed date or venue for direct talks could reverse the current collapse in odds. A YES share at 3¢ pays $1 if a deal is reached by April 30, but that bet requires believing a deal can materialize in days with no talks scheduled.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 2.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 24.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 44.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 52.5% | — | — | Trade → |
