Trump suggested another round of US-Iran talks could happen by Friday. The market for a US-Iran peace deal by April 30 sits at 16% YES, down from 18% yesterday and 36% a week ago.
Traders remain skeptical about a quick resolution. The April 30 peace deal market holds at 16% YES, while the May 31 market is at 40% YES, meaning traders see a deal as far more plausible with an extra month on the clock.
The meeting date market for April 24 has risen to 6%. April 25 and April 26 are both at 11%, with no single date commanding strong confidence.
The peace deal market saw $223,691 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours, with $28,110 needed to move the price 5 points. The market is liquid enough to absorb large trades but still moves on substantial orders. The largest recent shift was a 4-point spike, likely driven by Trump’s comments.
Trump’s signal could be noise rather than a genuine breakthrough. A YES share at 16¢ pays $1 if a deal happens by April 30, a 6.25x return. Traders need to weigh the likelihood of substantive negotiations against the clock.
Watch for statements from Trump or Iranian officials confirming meeting dates or agenda details. Pakistan’s mediation role and any changes in the naval blockade status could also move prices.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 40.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 63.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 10.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 23 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 24 | 6.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 25 | 11.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 26 | 11% | — | — | Trade → |
