Trump signaled Iran’s increased willingness to negotiate, pushing odds of a deal on oil sanctions in April to 36% YES.
The market climbed from 34% yesterday and 28% a week ago. Trump’s remarks about Iran’s new openness to a deal have traders watching the April market closely.
The broader context involves ongoing Israel-Lebanon talks, which Trump hopes to influence. These talks haven’t moved the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market, which sits at 99.6% YES. Traders appear to be waiting for concrete developments before adjusting positions in the ceasefire and broader diplomatic markets.
The Iran sanctions market has daily trading volume at $5,264 face value, with $1,864 in actual USDC. It’s thin: just $198 is needed to move the price 5 points, so a small number of trades can swing the odds significantly. The largest price move in the last 24 hours was a 2-point drop, which suggests that while interest has picked up, conviction is weak.
A YES share prices at 36¢ and pays $1 if Trump agrees to any Iranian demands in April, a potential 2.78x return. For that bet to pay off, Trump’s diplomatic efforts would need to produce a breakthrough by month-end. Watch Trump’s Truth Social for posts detailing specific concessions or agreements, and CENTCOM’s operational updates on the Hormuz blockade. Those are the signals most likely to move this market.
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Israel X Lebanon Diplomatic Meeting| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 99.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 99.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 35% | — | — | Trade → |
