Trump announced that US-Iran talks will continue over the weekend, saying differences are minimal. A permanent peace deal by April 22 sits at 28.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago.
The negotiations have moved several markets. The April 22 peace deal market is at 28.5% YES, a 3-point gain over the week. The April 30 market rose to 46.5% YES from 17%. The May 31 market jumped to 65.5% YES.
The Iran uranium enrichment agreement market is at 44.2% YES, up from 35% a day ago. Traders are pricing in a slightly higher chance that Iran makes concessions on enrichment.
Combined actual USDC volume across the peace deal markets hit $711,138 in the last 24 hours. The May 31 market saw the most volatility, with a 10-point drop as traders reacted to incoming news.
A YES share for an April 22 peace deal costs 28.5¢, paying $1 if successful, a 6.7x return. For that to pay off, a deal needs to be reached in the next six days.
Watch for statements from Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi or US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. Any confirmation of concessions or a final agreement would move these markets fast.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 28.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 46.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 65.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 73.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 44.2% | — | — | Trade → |
