Trump called a US-Iran ceasefire extension “highly unlikely,” pushing the market for an extension by April 21 down to 31% YES from 86% just 24 hours ago.
The market for Trump announcing an end to the ceasefire by April 21 jumped to 9% YES, up from 6% yesterday. Odds on a ceasefire breach announcement rose to 17.5% YES. The largest single move was a 5-point spike at 11:03 AM as traders scrambled to adjust positions.
The ceasefire extension market trades $82,767 in USDC daily, but order book depth is only $9,463 to move 5 points, leaving it vulnerable to large orders. A 4-point drop at 11:09 AM shows traders pricing in higher escalation risk.
Trump’s “highly unlikely” comment points toward a shift from diplomacy to more aggressive posturing. At 36¢, a YES share on ceasefire extension pays $1 if extended, a 2.78x return. That bet only makes sense if you expect a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch for official announcements from CENTCOM or statements from Trump’s envoys. Sharif’s diplomatic maneuvers or unexpected Iranian compliance could move these markets fast.
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Us X Iran Ceasefire Extended| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 31% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
