Trump said there’s “no time pressure” on Iran ceasefire negotiations. A permanent peace deal by April 30 is at 14.5% YES, down from 18% yesterday.
The April 30 peace deal odds dropped from 18% to 14.5% YES after Trump’s comments. With seven days left, traders see little chance of a breakthrough. The May 31 odds sit at 36.5% YES, down from 52% a day ago, while June 30 holds at 57.5% YES. The selloff hit every timeframe.
Volume tells the story. The permanent peace deal market trades $433,823/day in actual USDC. The order book requires $27,970 to move the April 30 odds by 5 points, meaning the market is thick enough to resist wild swings from isolated trades. The largest single move recently was a four-point spike.
Trump’s statement removes any sense of a deadline, which is exactly what traders were pricing in for April 30. A YES share at 14.5¢ pays $1 if a deal is struck, a 6.9x return. Collecting that payout requires a surprise diplomatic breakthrough this week.
Watch for announcements from US envoys heading to Islamabad or Trump posts suggesting a change in tone. An official meeting confirmation or a shift in Trump’s messaging could move these odds quickly.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 14.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 57.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3.2% | — | — | Trade → |
