President Trump has said he won’t enter into what he calls another “disastrous deal” with Iran, and the odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sit at 43% YES, up from 36% yesterday but still under pressure.
The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April climbed 7 points over the past 24 hours as traders reacted to shifting dynamics. Trump’s rhetoric points toward a hardline stance, which could push these odds back down if the political climate holds. The market for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026 has slid to 12.5% YES, while the April 30 date sits at 33.5% YES.
Daily trading volume on the Iranian demands market is $4,106 in USDC. It takes just $387 to move the price 5 percentage points, a thin order book where even moderate trades can cause large price swings. The largest single move was a 10-point spike.
Trump’s statement signals the US is unlikely to budge on key Iranian demands, including sanctions relief and enrichment rights. This reduces the likelihood of a breakthrough and keeps the risk of renewed hostilities on the table. Buying YES at 30¢ for the uranium enrichment agreement market offers a 3.33x payout, but it means betting against the current hardline rhetoric.
Watch for Trump’s next move, particularly any Truth Social posts or White House briefings. Any deviation from his stated position could shift these markets quickly.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 42.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 12.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 32.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 58.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 70% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 29.8% | — | — | Trade → |
