Trump has ruled out renewing the ceasefire without Iranian concessions, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sits at 7% YES, down from 14% yesterday and 62% a week ago.
Market reaction
Traders are responding to Trump’s hard stance in the Iranian demands market. The drop from 62% to 7% over the past week points to growing skepticism about any near-term agreement. It takes just $119 to move this market by 5 points, which makes it vulnerable to large trades.
The Iran peace deals market shows the same direction. Trump’s statements lower expectations for a permanent deal, and indirect talks via Pakistan have not produced any concrete progress.
Why it matters
The odds reflect a continued stalemate in US-Iran relations, with low probability of rapid de-escalation. The source tier is 3, so this may not carry the weight of official statements, but it fits Trump’s known negotiation pattern. For traders, buying YES at 7¢ offers a potential 14.3x return if a surprise concession occurs before May.
What to watch
Watch for shifts in US naval posture or new intermediaries entering the talks. Any announcement of direct US-Iran negotiations would likely move these markets sharply.
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Will Trump Publicly Insult Someone On| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 11, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 12, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 13, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 7% | — | — | Trade → |
