Donald Trump fired back at Pope Leo’s peace call, citing Iran’s killing of protesters. The market for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 sits at 25.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago.
Market reaction
The April 22 peace deal market holds at 25.5% YES with six days remaining. Traders are pricing in very little chance of a diplomatic breakthrough on that timeline. The April 30 deal trades at 41.5% YES, higher but still well below a coin flip for permanent peace.
Why it matters
Trump’s confrontational response to the Pope has direct market implications. His Truth Social posts targeting Pope Leo and focusing on Iran’s domestic crackdowns signal no appetite for near-term concessions. Volume for the US-Iran peace deal market is at $711,138 in actual USDC. The April 22 market showed a 4-point spike at 12:18 AM. It takes $16,312 to move the market 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The May and June markets show a jump from 34% to 55% between April 30 and May 31, suggesting traders see a possible catalyst in May.
What to watch
At 14.5¢, a YES share for April 22 pays $1 if a peace deal is announced, a near 7x return. That payout requires believing in a rapid diplomatic turnaround that current events don’t support. Watch Trump’s next Truth Social posts for any mention of specific diplomatic actions or escalations. Statements from Abbas Araghchi or Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf could also signal a shift toward negotiations and move these markets.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 25.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 41.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 54.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 65.5% | — | — | Trade → |
