Trump has turned down Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, keeping military tensions elevated. The odds of the U.S. announcing a blockade lift by May 31 are down to 44.5% from 60% yesterday.
The Trump blockade announcement market has dropped 15.5 points over the past 24 hours as expectations for a diplomatic resolution fade. With 32 days until resolution, daily trading volume is $150,716 in actual USDC. A $11,221 trade is enough to shift the market by 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization odds are down to 9.5%, a 10.5-point drop from yesterday.
The rejection points to a continued stalemate with no immediate relief for oil traders reliant on the Strait. Traders betting on traffic normalization face long odds. A YES share at 10¢ pays $1 if pre-conflict traffic levels resume by May 15, a 10x return. That bet requires a sudden diplomatic breakthrough to pay off.
The market for U.S. invasion of Iran remains speculative, with no clear odds available currently. The persistent impasse and continued military presence raise the potential for escalation. CENTCOM statements and any shifts in Iran’s military posture are the main signals to track.
Watch for Trump’s social media activity and CENTCOM operational updates for signs of policy shifts. Admiral Brad Cooper’s next public briefing could provide insight into U.S. strategic intentions.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | 44.5% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 9.5% | — | — | View market → |
