Trump’s dissatisfaction with Iran’s latest offer has sharply moved prediction markets. The likelihood of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April now sits at 2.2% YES, down from 14% just 24 hours ago.
Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to exchange the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for ending the U.S. blockade without addressing nuclear talks. The market trades at 2.2% YES, down from 62% a week ago. It takes only $119 to move the odds 5 points, a sign of how thin this market is.
The market on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 has also dropped, now at 0.8% YES from 6% yesterday. Both markets are pricing in near-zero probability of any nuclear agreement under current conditions.
Trading volume at $1,944 in daily USDC for the oil sanctions market. The largest price move was an 8-point spike yesterday, likely an outlier in an otherwise bearish trend. The uranium enrichment market is similarly thin, with $4,778 in daily USDC volume. A $2,529 order could shift it by 5 points.
This is a genuine setback, not noise. Trump directly rejected the Iranian proposal, and the market has repriced accordingly. A YES share costs 2¢, implying a 50x payout if Trump agrees, but that would require both sides to reverse course completely in less than a week.
Watch for statements from Trump’s advisors or the Iranian Foreign Ministry. Any shift in rhetoric or a surprise diplomatic move could reprice these markets fast.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 2.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 19.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
