Trump dismissed Iran’s proposal and kept the naval blockade intact. The odds of Trump announcing the blockade’s end by May 31 dropped to 43.5% YES, down from 52% yesterday.
Market reaction
The May 31 market fell from 52% to 43.5% YES as traders priced in the renewed stalemate. This continues a slide from 76% a week ago. With 31 days until resolution, the market is skeptical about any near-term deal.
Why it matters
The blockade’s continuation affects oil pricing through the Strait of Hormuz. Though specific odds on the WTI Crude Oil Prices in May 2026 market weren’t provided, sustained tension in the strait tends to push oil prices higher. Traders should expect volatility in crude markets while the blockade holds.
What to watch
Trading volume sits at $46,925 in USDC, and the order book requires $63,015 to move the price 5 points. That gap suggests institutional participation, but a single large order could still shift the market meaningfully. The biggest move was a 1-point drop early in the day, pointing to cautious repositioning rather than panic.
Trump’s rejection narrows the path to a resolution before the deadline. At 43.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if the blockade lifts by May 31, a 2.3x payout. Any movement would likely require unexpected diplomatic concessions or a new back-channel opening. Watch for shifts in rhetoric from CENTCOM and for Trump’s response to Iranian military actions, both of which would move this market quickly.
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