## Market Snapshot
US-Iran Nuclear Deal by June market is currently priced at 27.5% YES, down from 32% over the past 24 hours. The Israel-Iran Permanent Peace Deal market reflects a 16.5% YES probability, marginally up from 16% a day ago.
## Key Takeaways
– Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal suggests a setback in negotiations, consistent with decreased likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by June. – The market response implies increased skepticism about a permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran, reinforcing a decrease in probability. – The fragile ceasefire and recent drone incidents appear consistent with heightened tensions, impacting related markets negatively.
## Article Body
US President Donald Trump has dismissed Iran’s response to his latest peace proposal, deeming it “totally unacceptable.” The peace proposal aimed to resolve ongoing conflicts centered on the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which has been a focal point of the US-Iran war. Iran’s counterproposal included demands such as lifting US sanctions and recognizing Iranian sovereignty over the Strait. The breakdown in negotiations comes amid a fragile ceasefire, recently jeopardized by shadow drone incidents near Qatar and UAE. The rejection and Trump’s comments on the ceasefire being “on life support” have raised market concerns, reflected in a 3.5% surge in oil prices.
## Market Interpretation
The rejection of Iran’s proposal is supportive of a NO outcome for the US-Iran Nuclear Deal by June market. This development is assessed as having a high impact on market prices, given the substantial decrease in YES probabilities. Similarly, the deteriorating ceasefire conditions imply a decreased likelihood of a permanent peace agreement between Israel and Iran by June, reflecting a moderate impact on the related market.
## What to Watch
Key developments to monitor include any further statements from Trump or Iranian officials, which may influence market perceptions. Additionally, watch for any new military actions or changes in mediation roles by Pakistan that could alter the ceasefire status. The response from international bodies like the UN Security Council could also play a critical role in shaping future market movements.
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Us Iran Nuclear Deal June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 27.5% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 16.5% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31, 2026 | 2.9% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 9.5% | — | — | View market → |
