Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to end the war, keeping tensions high. The Crude Oil all-time high by April 30 market sits at 0.4% YES, down from 2% a day ago.
Market reaction
The April 30 market at 0.4% YES reflects skepticism about surpassing $120 with only six days left. Volume over the last 24 hours was $2,513, and a $695 order can move the price 5 points. The odds dropped from 2%, but regional tension is keeping a floor under oil prices.
Why it matters
The WTI Crude Oil market prices the odds of hitting $160 in April at 0.2% YES. Even with oil above $110, traders see almost no chance of reaching $160 given the geopolitical stalemate. Market depth is thin: only $1,632 would move the price 5 points, making it vulnerable to large orders.
What to watch
Trump’s dissatisfaction with Iran’s peace terms points to continued instability, but the market reaction suggests traders doubt oil can spike to historic highs this quickly. A YES share at 0.2¢ pays $1 if oil hits $160, a 500x return. That bet requires believing in a dramatic escalation or a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Watch for shifts in military activity or diplomatic moves involving OPEC+ or Russian intermediaries. Trump’s next statement, whether a social media post or a formal announcement, could swing these markets quickly.
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Crude Oil All Time High April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 0.2% | — | — | Trade → |
