Trump told Axios he’s optimistic about an Iran deal soon. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April is at 65% YES, up from 34% yesterday.
The Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April market picked up activity after Trump’s statement. His expectation of a deal “in a day or two” contrasts with previous estimates suggesting a six-month timeline. Odds sit at 65% YES, up from 28% a week ago.
The Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market is at 94.5% YES. Combined face value in the last 24 hours is $165,139, but only $33,928 in actual USDC, meaning relatively modest trades could still cause noticeable price swings.
Trump’s optimistic tone could be a pressure tactic aimed at Iran or a signal of genuine progress. A YES share at 65¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 2.78x return. That bet requires believing a breakthrough is close enough to happen before April ends.
Watch for official statements from the White House or Iranian leadership confirming deal terms. A Trump social media post or formal announcement could move these markets quickly.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 65% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 94.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 7.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 33.5% | — | — | Trade → |
