Donald Trump is meeting today to discuss the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with the market on Trump announcing the end of the US blockade by May 31 now at 56%, down from 72% yesterday.
The blockade market here dropped 16 points in 24 hours, from 72% to 56%, as traders grew more skeptical even as the cabinet meeting was announced. There are 37 days left until resolution.
The market for a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 sits at 0.6% YES, with only six days until resolution. Any movement would require a rapid breakthrough in talks.
The WTI Crude Oil market here tells a related story: odds of WTI reaching $160 in April are at 0.1% YES, suggesting traders expect the Strait to reopen and oil supply pressures to ease rather than escalate.
If the US agrees to Iran’s joint reopening proposal, the blockade market could move fast. At a current price of 56¢, a YES share pays $1 if the blockade is lifted by May 31. The main trigger to watch is any official statement after today’s meeting, whether from the White House, the Pentagon, or Iranian officials. A confirmed policy shift or diplomatic engagement would reprice these markets quickly.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 56% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
