Trump’s latest comments suggest no concessions on Iran. The odds for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sit at 47.5% YES, down from 62% just 24 hours ago.
Trump’s rhetoric points to a hardline stance. Permanent peace deal by April 22 is now at 25.5% YES, showing skepticism about near-term resolution. The April market lost 14.5 percentage points in one day as traders recalibrated following Trump’s statement.
The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian demands has real money behind it. Daily USDC volume is at $6,018, and it takes only $816 to shift the market 5 points, meaning even moderate trades can move prices substantially.
Trump’s comments suggest little likelihood of easing sanctions, which weighs on broader peace deal odds. The term structure shows skepticism in the short term but more openness at longer horizons, with a 22-point jump from April 30 to May 31. At May 31 odds, a YES share at 62.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 1.72x return.
Watch for any shifts in rhetoric from US or Iranian officials. Trump’s follow-up statements or official US policy adjustments will be the main indicators. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff are the figures to track.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 27.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 25.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 44.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 62.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 69.5% | — | — | Trade → |
