Trump made upbeat remarks about a possible Iran deal before the ceasefire expires, and the probability of a permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 22 is now at 22% YES, up from 12% a week ago.
The sharpest move was in the April 30 peace deal market, which doubled from 17% to 37.5% YES over the past week. Traders appear to see a near-term catalyst. The May 31 market climbed to 59.5% YES. With 6 days until the current ceasefire ends, the market is pricing in possible progress during Trump’s proposed weekend meeting.
The Iranian oil sanction relief market is at 36% YES, up from 28% a week ago. Traders are giving some probability to Trump easing oil sanctions as part of a broader deal. This market is thin, with daily volume at just $1,975 in USDC, making it susceptible to large orders moving the price.
The uranium enrichment agreement market sits at 36.8% YES. Trump’s statements hint at progress, but no tangible commitments have been made, which is keeping this market from rallying further.
Trump’s rhetoric has been positive, but without concrete agreements, the risk of escalation after the ceasefire expires is real. Buying YES at 22¢ offers a potential 6.67x return if a peace deal is signed by April 22. Traders will be watching for specific announcements or shifts in language from both US and Iranian officials.
Watch for Trump’s statements over the weekend and any concrete announcements or tweets from JD Vance or Iranian officials. These could signal a more definitive move toward resolution.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 22.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 37.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 59.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 67.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 34.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 36.8% | — | — | Trade → |
