Trump’s comments on ongoing U.S.-Iran talks suggest potential progress. The uranium enrichment agreement market sits at 39.2% YES, up from 35% yesterday.
The shift is visible across several related markets. Iran’s uranium enrichment agreement trades at 39.2% YES, up from 10% a week ago. The US-Iran peace deal by April 22 is at 33.5% YES, a modest move from 12% a week ago. The April 30 peace deal market doubled from 17% last week to 46.5% YES.
Trading volume tells its own story. The uranium enrichment market has $23,824 in daily USDC trades, with just $599 required to move it 5 points. The peace deal markets are thicker: $259,083 in daily USDC traded for the April 22 resolution and $175,529 for April 30. That level of liquidity on a two-week window means real money is betting on near-term diplomatic results.
Trump’s statement is encouraging but not definitive. At 39.2¢, a YES bet on uranium enrichment ending by April 30 pays $1, a 2.55x return. For that to pay off, you’d need to believe in a decisive shift within 14 days. The peace deal markets similarly depend on imminent breakthroughs.
Watch for developments from Islamabad, where Pakistan is mediating. A confirmed agenda for further talks or an official statement from Trump or Iran’s leadership could move these markets sharply.
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Iran Agrees To End Enrichment Of Uranium April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 40.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 33.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 46.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 65.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 73.5% | — | — | Trade → |
