Trump’s recent comments suggest a resolution to the Iran conflict may be near, with potential talks this weekend. The possibility of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 sits at 8%.
Traders are reacting to Trump’s statement, which hints at diplomatic progress. The likelihood of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 is up to 41.5%, from 17% a week ago. The May 31 market has also risen to 56.5%. A YES share at 22¢ for the April 21 market pays $1 if resolution occurs, a 4.5x return.
The market for an extended ceasefire by April 22 shows a 23.5% chance. The largest move was a 4-point spike at 12:18 AM, suggesting concentrated buying activity.
Volume at $699,190 in actual USDC traded across all markets, with the April 30 market requiring $18,640 to move 5 points, consistent with institutional-grade depth. The thin order book for nearer-term sub-markets suggests caution among traders betting on a quick resolution.
Trump’s comments are bullish for the ceasefire market, but without concrete steps like scheduled talks or intermediary actions, this could be noise. The April 30 market doubling from 17% to 34.5% in a week shows traders are pricing in real probability of a deal, not just reacting to rhetoric. The gap between the April 21 (8%) and May 31 (56.5%) markets tells you the market expects a deal eventually but doubts the timeline Trump is implying.
Watch for developments from intermediaries like Oman and Qatar, or specific commitments from Trump or Iranian leadership. A scheduled meeting or a prisoner exchange would move these odds fast. The thin near-term order books mean even modest buying pressure could cause sharp price swings on the April 21 and April 22 contracts.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 23.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 41.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 56.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 70% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
