President Trump at a Turning Point USA rally in Arizona hinted that the Strait of Hormuz situation is nearing resolution. The market for Trump announcing the lifting of the Hormuz blockade by May 31 is at 89.5% YES.
The May 31 market sits at 82% YES. The short-term markets tell a different story: April 17 is at 8.5% and April 19 at 17.5%. The term structure suggests traders expect a resolution catalyst closer to the end of May, not in the next few days.
In the peace deal market, odds for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 are at 29.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago. Iranian projectiles and unresolved nuclear negotiations keep this price low. A YES share at 15¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 6.67x return.
The Hormuz blockade market saw $33,928 in USDC traded, with $3,730 needed to move the price 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest move was a 2-point spike, consistent with strategic positioning rather than a broad sentiment shift.
Trump’s rhetoric dismissing NATO as a “Paper Tiger” pushed the US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 market slightly to 1.2% YES. At 1.2¢, a YES share yields a 83.33x return if it resolves, which makes it a pure contrarian bet on a dramatic break in US-NATO relations.
The partial ceasefire in Hormuz signals possible de-escalation, but whether this becomes a permanent resolution depends on what comes next. Traders should watch for announcements from Trump or the Pentagon confirming the blockade’s end.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 29.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 89.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 2% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.2% | — | — | Trade → |
