President Trump suggests a potential Iran deal while warning of an attack if no agreement is reached. US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 sits at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
Traders are wary, with the odds for April 7 dropping to 1%. The April 15 market also dipped to 6% YES, while April 30 decreased to 18%. The biggest shift was in the May 31 market, which slid from 46% to 36%.
Volume at $431,402 across all sub-markets, with $12,352 needed to move the April 7 price by 5 points, indicating a thin order book. A notable move was a 2-point drop in the May 31 market at 7:39 PM, reflecting the market’s reaction to Trump’s mixed signals.
The threat of escalation outweighs the potential for a deal in traders’ minds. The market views Trump’s warning as more than just rhetoric, given Iran’s previous rejection of ceasefire terms and its vow of retaliation. The April 7 deadline looks increasingly unlikely for a ceasefire, with traders pricing in continued hostilities.
Watch for statements from intermediaries like Oman and Qatar or any move by Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Any concrete diplomatic progress could shift the markets significantly.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 51.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |
