Donald Trump says he’s in no hurry to resolve the conflict with Iran, asserting any deal will be on U.S. terms. Diplomatic meetings with Iran by April 30 are at 2% YES, down from 4% yesterday.
Market reaction
Trump’s hardline stance has cooled expectations for any near-term diplomacy. The April 30 diplomatic meeting market sits at 2% YES, down from 6% a week ago. With seven days left until resolution, traders are pricing in almost no chance of U.S.-Iran engagement. The market’s order book requires $2,630 to shift odds by 5 points, showing moderate resistance to further declines.
In the permanent peace deal market, odds are at 8.5% YES for an agreement by April 30, down from 20% yesterday. The May 31 market shows 30.5% YES, down from 44% over the past day. The June 30 market at 49.5% YES suggests traders have pushed their timelines out, expecting any progress to come later.
Why it matters
Trump’s comments signal a firm U.S. negotiating posture that reduces the probability of quick diplomatic or peace resolutions. Buying YES shares for a diplomatic meeting by April 30 at 2¢ would pay $1 if successful, a 50x return, but that requires believing in a rapid reversal of current rhetoric, which looks improbable.
What to watch
Any statements from the White House or State Department that signal a shift in approach. JD Vance’s movements and new diplomatic overtures from third-party nations like Pakistan could also move these odds.
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Who Will Meet With Iran April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 30.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 50% | — | — | Trade → |
