## Market Snapshot
The “Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?” market is currently priced at 0.1% YES, down from 1% yesterday and 6% a week ago. The “US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026?” market remains at 8% YES.
## Key Takeaways
– Market activity suggests a decreased likelihood of President Trump announcing a ceasefire by April 30th, consistent with extended military operations. – The approaching War Powers Resolution deadline may increase the probability of congressional action or escalation, reflected in the slight increase in war declaration odds. – The continued US naval blockade and military presence suggest ongoing tension, impacting market sentiment towards a ceasefire.
## Article Body
President Trump is facing a critical deadline under the War Powers Resolution, which demands a decision on the continuation or cessation of military operations against Iran. The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began on February 28, 2026, following joint airstrikes that targeted Iran and resulted in the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Although a ceasefire was announced by the U.S., a naval blockade remains in place around Iranian ports, maintaining economic pressure. The deadline requires Trump to either end operations, seek congressional authorization, or extend the conflict by 30 days. The situation remains tense as military options are on the table to force negotiations.
## Market Interpretation
Markets appear consistent with a scenario where military operations may extend beyond April 30th, as suggested by the low probability of a ceasefire being announced by that date. This is considered a high-impact development due to the significant potential for policy shifts. Meanwhile, the probability of a formal war declaration remains stable, suggesting a moderate impact from the current deadline pressures on the likelihood of such an escalation.
## What to Watch
Key developments to monitor include President Trump’s decision on extending military operations or seeking congressional authorization. Actions by intermediaries such as Oman and Qatar could indicate shifts towards diplomatic resolutions. Additionally, any change in rhetoric from Trump, or movements by CENTCOM could provide further indicators of the conflict’s trajectory. Observers should also watch for any congressional response to Trump’s decision, which could influence the likelihood of a formal declaration of war.
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Trump Announces End Of Military Operations Against Iran| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 7.5% | — | — | View market → |
| April 30, 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
