Trump extended the Jones Act waiver for 90 days to address fuel price pressures tied to the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran. The Polymarket contract on WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 by April 30 has seen no trades in the last 24 hours, and the waiver’s supply-easing implications make that threshold less likely.
Market reaction
The WTI Crude Oil $160 by April 30 market has $0 in face value traded recently. Zero liquidity means the contract is susceptible to large moves on minimal volume. The waiver extension, by allowing foreign-flagged vessels to transport fuel commodities, points toward more stable supply logistics, which would push the contract’s probability lower. Traders appear to be sitting on the sidelines.
Why it matters
The 90-day waiver signals that the US government expects sustained logistics disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz conflict and is acting to keep energy supply flowing. Foreign-flagged vessels filling gaps in domestic shipping capacity could prevent the kind of acute supply crunch needed to push WTI anywhere near $160. At current levels, a YES share on WTI hitting $160 by April 30 would require a major supply shock to pay off, and this waiver makes that shock less probable absent further military escalation.
What to watch
OPEC+ production decisions could offset or amplify the waiver’s effect on supply. Any shift in US-Iran diplomatic engagement would directly affect Strait of Hormuz transit risk. The Energy Information Administration’s next inventory report will clarify whether domestic stockpiles are adequate or thinning, which would move sentiment on crude price contracts.
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Trump Out As President April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 47.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 10% | — | — | Trade → |
