Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran. The ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 14% YES, down from 32% yesterday.
The ceasefire by April 30 odds dropped sharply after an initial spike, landing at 14% YES. Traders moved quickly on Trump’s statement, but continued military displays in Tehran make a quick resolution look unlikely. The Iran regime fall markets shifted too, with April 30 odds dropping to 0.7% YES as the ceasefire reduces immediate regime pressure.
The indefinite ceasefire has also pushed down the likelihood of a US ground invasion in the US forces entering Iran market. No current odds are reported there, but the extension points away from escalation and toward back-channel negotiations.
For traders, the ceasefire extension represents a shift toward diplomacy, at least for now. At 14¢, a YES share pays $1 if military operations end by April 30, a 7.14x return. That bet requires believing diplomatic talks gain serious traction within the next 9 days.
Watch for activity from regional intermediaries like Oman and Qatar, and any changes in rhetoric from US or Iranian leadership. Trump’s language and intermediary movements will be the main signals for these markets.
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Trump Announces End Of Military Operations Against Iran| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
