Trump said he anticipates Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi will continue in negotiations. The chance of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 is 19.5% YES, down from 32% twenty-four hours ago.
Araghchi was part of the 2015 JCPOA negotiations, and his continued involvement signals that Iran hasn’t walked away from the table. April 30 odds are the focal point, with just 9 days left until resolution. The largest recent move was a 5-point spike, pointing to volatile sentiment.
Trading volume is $68,607 actual USDC per day, with $4,074 needed to shift the price by 5 points. The market is active but thin enough that a single large trade can move the price meaningfully. The 12.5-point drop over 24 hours reflects growing skepticism about a deal within the timeline.
At 19.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if a ceasefire is announced by April 30, a potential 5.13x return. That payout prices in how unlikely traders consider a rapid diplomatic breakthrough with 9 days remaining.
Watch for Oman or Qatar intermediary activity and any shift in rhetoric from Trump or Iranian leaders. These are the most likely catalysts to move odds before the deadline.
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