Kevin Hassett revealed that Trump believes peace talks with Iran are imminent. The odds for a US-Iran peace deal by April 22 sit at 16.5% YES, down from 40% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
Traders are cautious but not dismissive. The April 30 market is at 37.5% YES, with uncertainty around Tehran’s participation in the upcoming Islamabad talks. The May 31 odds sit higher at 58.5%, meaning traders see a greater chance of resolution by then. The biggest jump is between April 30 and May 31, suggesting expectations for a catalyst in that window.
The diplomatic meetings market shows tepid optimism, with odds for a meeting by April 30 at 13%, down from 22% in the last 24 hours. That drop tracks with skepticism about Iran’s willingness to sit down with U.S. officials, even after Trump’s statement.
Why it matters
$1.64M in USDC traded across these markets over the last 24 hours. The US-Iran peace deal market is relatively thick, requiring $9,404 to move prices by 5 points for the April 22 date. The largest price move was a 5-point drop at 5:56 PM, pointing to large trades recalibrating expectations.
What to watch
Hassett’s statement offers hope but lacks the concrete details traders need for a strong shift in sentiment. The more significant action could come if Trump’s words translate into confirmed diplomatic meetings or Iran signals a change in stance. Buying YES at 16.5¢ offers a potential 5x return, but that bet hinges on swift diplomatic progress.
Watch for Pakistan’s role as a mediator to gain traction or any direct communication confirming Iran’s participation in the talks. Either development would likely move these markets sharply.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 16.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 37.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 60.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 14.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 14.3% | — | — | Trade → |
